January 2008 interview with the media, without any investment advice or solicitation.
Xie I'm not bad-mouth sing praises to send
Sohu blog
media heat speculation is that his few words that stimulate the eye. not many people will listen to complete pieces of the story of Andy Xie, finished his
God play dice you?
Einstein said, God is not in the macro world of dice. Bohr countered, you do not have the power to decide how to do things of God.
If Einstein is right, it's Andy Xie, an economic seer, there is meaningful. mm, so the media and investors will ask him so many questions: His voice faded, the next day, the central bank announced its 6th 2007 interest rate increase.
after leaving Morgan Stanley, claiming to pedal shoes, leaving for shoulder bags, in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen over the flying. make their own investment, and old customers to call him, the local government asked him to go to class last night and hh coming to the point, blending too many things can be. , this bright students from China, the first test to maintain unbeaten record, but he still felt his mind quickly, but the Jews. Ever since, Xie made a practical choice mm to the World Bank, were applied to do type of the economists.
stars and entertainment
dry economist Andy Xie, this line of business, some by accident. high school, he wanted to write fiction, the teacher said there was no future; he wanted to study science, the teacher said there was no future , Solomon is the founder of growth theory, by virtue of 1988 won the Nobel Prize in Economics. the idea of transfer lines. Soro not contacted before the Chinese students, suggested that he first came to class, if the pass, he can go to the Department of Economics. Andy Xie, a five-course so breath repair a result, all the test the first .
When economists meet the love of mindless Xie, love the desire to express their views. He became a through analysis, forecast analyst at investment bank to eat. And in many investment bank analysts, he is undoubtedly the most audacious nonsense that one, in particular, he would be willing to commit, he was bold economic collapse similar to the speech, so his company was a little dilemma. for their own views and analysis, Andy Xie, very stubborn, so it was evaluating his game to a side road of no return mm if predictions fail, he will its reputation.
Fortunately, it now appears there is sufficient reason to Andy Xie, proud and stubborn. Interestingly, the magazine reporter asked him mm inflection point, then it is necessary to grasp the entire system. The market can not always go up, the formation is too complex turning point, a government action, cultural, and other effects, political events, such as in China, Congress, the NPC, the Olympic Games, WTO are motivation. .
, no one remembers; May 2003, I said a big party to come, no one remembers. We all remember the words I said to pour. a kind of entertainment are misreading their own mind think, to do, more likely to be taken out of context, because I wrote the report is to give fund managers to see, a lot of things I do not write the whole. This time, I gave Andy Xie, a bad-mouthing a good image to say. predicted to them the mentality of a fanatical repression, this is not a bad thing. from the U.S. to all over the world, to Hong Kong, and so the focus of his research into the country again, he has turned around in the world, he felt that he now really understand China, as well as the United States.
last century and the early nineties, but also the work of Andy Xie, the Bank came to the Latin American economy has entered a golden age, The first is optimistic about the Chinese economy up. will go up, he will turn towards you roll your eyes. However, the Chinese people now believe anything. Urbanization, industrialization, the demographic dividend are together. This is why many people went to China to fry. settled in Shanghai, when standing on the balcony of their own, see here from the floor, and where what they cover, retired old people are very happy. very rare in other parts of the world, whether it is in Europe, the United States or the rise of India now also. The people must win, according to international practice, the general to the gamblers was 48% probability of winning, so gamblers keep going, the last certainly lose. However, everyone might be the one that can earn their own lot of money, if not then to find their own bad luck, a feng shui your home furniture at home put Yi Bai. The first, he thought that luck, rather than probability; the second, he believes can through their own behavior to change fortune. China's economy yet, good times, so a color era. Otherwise, nothing mean. investment advisory companies. He said there are some new programs next year, possibly together with friends to do the fund invested in public markets. For now, record investment in mm as there are tasks like fund managers, investment every day, it will certainly be wrong. , as the .2004 years ago, predicted that October, the Shanghai property market is the zenith, Andy Xie, a report entitled property developers and many economists accusation, Li Yining, and even dismissed as two years of the dark time.
or rational analysis in depth, along with a little probability of success, the achievements of Andy Xie's reputation economic forecaster. However, the uncertainty of the future, to reach a rational understanding of how limit it?
always remember Andy Xie, founder of quantum physics, science master Bohr once said, mm
Invisible Hand, his awe.
even if the financial crisis came, the Chinese have not finished this round
People magazine: in 2004, your bursting of the bubble in Shanghai housing prices have made a successful foreseeable . What is the difference in this wave?
Andy Xie: In 2004, my starting point is the point of view: At the time, many Hong Kong people of Taiwan to Shanghai to buy a house, first, because they think the concept of Shanghai is good, and second, because these people U.S. dollars are kept, and when U.S. interest rates low. Later, the U.S. raised U.S. interest rates, to 5% or so, I demand to know the problem.
and the cause of this wave is this: real estate investors pushed up the prices in Shenzhen, they believe that the relative housing prices in Shenzhen, Shanghai or underestimated, so went to Shanghai to real estate. Now, housing prices fell in Shenzhen and Shanghai will be associated with. Of course, Shanghai , was kind enough to stock market-related prices in Shenzhen. This wave to wait for the stock market bottomed out, the real estate to bottom.
People Magazine: So, the central bank to tighten credit, real estate will produce exactly what impact?
Andy Xie: The central government has been cracking down Terrestrial, but useless, the problem lies in the local government. The central government can control is to control the banking system's credit.
real estate business is now exhausted, they make a fortune The concept is simple mm to borrow money to buy land, and then borrow money to buy land, capital chain is stretched too tightly. funds pulled out after one, they have no money, no money, but also to pay the land transfer to the Government gold, the loan before the bank promised not to and had to sell the house. So, there will be a price adjustment.
People Magazine: You said that the property market slump after the Olympics, and now, this inflection point will early appearance?
Andy Xie: This is hard to say. The last time the macro-control to five months, from May 2005 to September, this may also may also take the S-type, go bottomed out in March, rise again until the Olympics. because the supply has not increased. After the Olympics there will be a wave of adjustments. However, this may be the adjustment in Beijing, may not be in Shanghai.
People magazine: Shanghai's housing prices there is imagination, there is One day like Hong Kong do?
Andy Xie: In fact, Shanghai and Hong Kong has almost the same. Xintiandi near the price is more than 70,000 dollars, and at most twice that of Hong Kong.
the future, the Shanghai housing prices will certainly higher than in Hong Kong, replaced Hong Kong as a financial center, financial center must be taxed heavily, Hong Kong does not pay taxes. Shanghai's housing prices is certainly the future will be like London and New York as high, but later in this wave.
People Weekly : You said that after the Olympics will be China's stock market crash in the bubble will burst at the time you?
Andy Xie: The point was made before me, the stock market in the Congress, each round of adjustment after the Olympic Games. adjustment concept, the concept is down 30%, but this is a small period. The real bubble burst, to wait until the U.S. callback.
hot Chinese economy will continue, there will be a few adjustments. First U.S. interest rates caused Shanghai housing prices to adjust, , to wait until the dollar bottomed out.
People Magazine: What time will come? time, China will face the crisis of how to?
Andy Xie: The end to the war in Iraq and other U.S., at least until 2009. on a U.S. dollar correction in 1995, the U.S. IT boom there, the U.S. dollar on the back, the Southeast Asian economy would cause a problem. Once the withdrawal of large amount of money in circulation will be a problem, asset prices decline, causing a lot of bad debt, financial to a problem. However, even if the financial crisis came, not the end of this round of China, China still has the charm, after the adjustment, the money will flow back. China and the U.S. economy in the play seesaw. Now, the United States, Iraq war, we have the Olympics, has joined the WTO, just a contrast, the money flow to us here, we started to fry here. The next round, if there are any new bright spot in the United States, for example, what the life sciences, money they immediately passed; then there are other concepts such as us, and then flow back.
If you fall, there is an influx of hot money, will have much impact on China's economy?
Andy Xie: The slowly. exports dropped, it will transfer to China. But so much of China's foreign exchange reserves, the internal investment is kept, the export of the Chinese economy is no amplification. China's heavy industry in facing up to go, the capacity of the exchange rate much better than light. Of course, the U.S. economic problems, will find a scapegoat, 80 find in Japan, is now looking to China. However, the Americans are very practical, to boycott how to use.
Andy Xie: China does not need this money, China now has too much money. As for how to use the money issue, China's income distribution, labor accounts for only 40% of the lowest in the world, the Government The company accumulated the hands of more and more money. This is a basic imbalance. China needs to have a redistribution of income, in order to have a higher economic growth. The problem is that China's interests has been formed in 10 years ago, may also change.
People Magazine: China's economy in 2007 the biggest thing is what? below what would be the problem?
Andy Xie: China's two major events of 2007 mm on the quality of export products as media events, and the other is the domestic inflation to be a big problem. Next year will continue to be a big challenge, in addition to a cycle of fluctuations in the mm is deflation, how to prevent a hard landing, next Olympic Games, how to prevent the economy from overheating, After the Olympics, how to prevent a hard landing. This is a S-type.
Andy Xie, Sohu blog
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